Expect the Unexpected

“A serious disruption will happen in every business; it’s not a question of if but when. If the disruption is big enough, it can destroy you, but it can also give you the opportunity to succeed far beyond your previous achievements. No one predicted the major impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, but it has destroyed some companies (restaurants) and helped others (Zoom).”

“Since every company will face surprises and change, it should face this imperative as an opportunity to drive the business to new heights instead of causing it to crash and burn like Blockbuster and Kodak. In order to do so, it must adapt, properly and strategically—as outlined in the sections on staying flexible, being close to the customer, and focusing on what you can control.”

"On the surface these ideas seem pretty simple, but that is exactly what makes them so powerful. It is the simple stuff that we don't get completely right that gets us into trouble. You have to get the foundational fundamentals right or all the fancy stuff you put on top of it will just add confusion."

“We often focus on our competitors and worry about surprises from them, but more often than not, it is the customer who surprises us. Customer tastes and preferences can change quickly, sinking a promising business move. This is a particular problem for successful companies that believe their success is a vindication of their approach, and they continue on the same path even though the market has changed.”

“Rely on data rather than intuition whenever you can. Too many managers think they know the answers and have some special understanding of the marketplace and the consumer. Relying on data rather than your gut will make you seem like a genius even though it is really the most basic business 101.”

“While computers, robots, and technology have automated many tasks, there is no doubt that the quickening pace of business, global competition, government regulation, information overload, and rapidly changing technology has made business more complex today than it was in decades past. Because of uncertainty about the long term, businesses tend to focus on the short term. Companies shy away from long-term management in order to get short-term wins. Harvard Business School professor Bill George blames the financial crisis of 2008 on a culture of short-termism at the expense of long-term value. He quotes Warren Buffett as saying the best holding period is “forever.” Especially in the short term, don’t expect things to turn out like you planned. Owners and executives can get caught up with enthusiasm or despair over short-term results and lose discipline and direction. Decisions that really build value are long-term decisions and require work over a longer period of time. Interestingly enough, there is more that we can do about long-term uncertainty than about short-term surprises.”